Trump Troubles
Posted on Saturday, May 20th, 2017
A roller coaster runs up and down spins around and around while finishing where you started and it probably cost you money. – Arthur Cashin
We all rode the rollercoaster this week. While there was plenty of noise and bluster the market fell less than one half of one percent this week. We feel that the volatility in the market was more about the massive positioning of trader’s being short volatility and not as much about Trump. Trump is just the excuse. Could this be a warning shot across the bow in the crowded volatility trade? Perhaps. Be careful. We are entering a slow period for the market seasonally. There just aren’t as many players around during the summer months and moves could become more pronounced. I, for one, would welcome back some volatility. It keeps investors onsides.
Financials are very important to the bullishness of the US stock market. The yield curve is flattening. That means that the bond market sees the economy slowing and the prospect of higher rates on the long end decreasing. The Fed will not be able to continue to raise rates if the economy is faltering. Financials are probably the most important sector of the stock market. Without financials it is hard to get the index to extend higher. The market is pricing in a June rate hike but chances are diminishing that the Fed will be able to raise rates a third time in 2017. Trump’s troubles make a fiscal bump less likely. If you have followed our blog you know that we made the case that a Trump bump from fiscal stimulus would give the Fed cover to raise rates. If that gets lost in the swamp then it makes the Fed’s job a lot more difficult. Our next point of interest is the Fed’s balance sheet. They are making noise that shrinking it is becoming a priority. That will be a huge factor in 2018.
West Texas crude was able to hold its recent lows and was able to close this week above the psychologically important $50 a barrel level. It could be just a bounce off of the OPEC meeting and Russian compliance or we could be seeing more growth worldwide. Oil has a top on it as if crude goes higher as more shale players will come online capping the price of oil but it is worth watching as an indicator of growth around the world.
Given all that happened this week the market is still stuck in consolidation mode. Emerging markets and Europe have been the place to be but Brazil took a hard shot this week. Keep an eye on Brazil. Impeachment is a strong word. Given the very small sample of US Presidents that have been on the impeachment trail stock markets have not reacted negatively in the longer term based on the impeachment process. Having said that, impeachment is also not likely given that Republicans control the House, that is until the midterm elections in 2018. It is hard to argue against the bull thesis as the market continues to hold its recent range of 2330-2400 on the S&P 500. Until we break decidedly below 2330 we hold on to the bullish thesis.
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I think we aspire less to foresee the future and more to be a great contingency planner… you can respond very fast to what’s happening because you thought through all the possibilities, – Lloyd Blankfein
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A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. – Winston Churchill
Disclosure: This blog is informational and is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. If you are thinking about investing consider the risk. Everyone’s financial situation is different. Consult your financial advisor.