Falling Apart
Posted on Sunday, August 21st, 2022
In 2021 we spent many a cocktail hour dreaming about our plans for our big anniversary this year. But our conversations in the last 6 months have centered more about what needs to be replaced around here. We have noticed that everything around the house seems to be falling apart or wearing out all at once. The list is quite extensive. For example, just about every knife, pot, and pan in the kitchen as well as the toaster. Multiple AC units. Our mattress as well as the children’s mattress’. The vacuum, after multiple attempts to resuscitate it, has also now been declared deceased. Last night as I began to tick off on items on that list Diane interrupted me. She cringed as she said – “By the way, The dryer is going too.” Maybe it all just a testimony to how great our marriage is given that it has lasted longer than all the appliances.
Is this where the head scratcher of a rally turns? Three weeks ago, we noted the level of resistance on the S&P 500 is the 200-day moving average which stands around 4330 at the moment. The high this week on the S&P 500 was 4325. That’s close enough. You have seen moves in your portfolios in the last few weeks. That is us taking advantage of the rally and taking down risk. We now pause and look for confirmation from the market.
Friday saw an expiration which could unlock the market to become more volatile. The market is now vulnerable to a negative newswire. A close under 4190 could see further selling. The market may hold off until they hear what Fed Chair Powell has to say on Saturday. September can be a very volatile month. Batten down the hatches. This may be the last slow week until the Holidays.
“Short term volatility is greatest at turning points and diminishes as a trend becomes established.”– George Soros
I think we aspire less to foresee the future and more to be a great contingency planner… you can respond very fast to what’s happening because you thought through all the possibilities, – Lloyd Blankfein
A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. – Winston Churchill
To learn more about us and Blackthorn Asset Management LLC visit our website at www.BlackthornAsset.com .
Disclosure: This blog is informational and is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. If you are thinking about investing consider the risk. Everyone’s financial situation is different. Consult your financial advisor.