Time Flies
Posted on Sunday, July 24th, 2022
Where the hell is my mattress? I purposely did the research on the mattress as to the location of the factory. It is made right here in Georgia, and I wanted to support local jobs as well as preclude any supply chain issues. It turns out that the frame is coming from China. 3 weeks and counting. It was a very slow week, so I was able to spend some time with the boys. Kevin took his golf lesson, and I took them both to the pool and had lunch. It is really starting to hit home now. I only have a few more weeks with them. What happens next? Does it just get quiet? All 3 are above the age of 18. It feels like such a marker in time. Did I do a good job as a parent? I feel like we just flew thru final exams, and it is report card time and I’m not ready.
The S&P 500 gained 2.5% last week. Let’s see if the bulls can keep up the good work. We are entering some of the toughest terrain when it comes to seasonality. These next few months in a mid-term election year are usually tough sledding. Combine that with a Federal Reserve that is tightening policy and the bulls are going to have a tough time of it. Furthermore, any forays into the 4000’s on the S&P only gives the Fed more room to raise rates. We tested 4000 the latter half of the week.
This is a big week coming up. The Fed meets on Wednesday and Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google all have earnings announcements this week. All told 55% of the S&P 500 will announce this week and the street is especially focused on what Microsoft has to say. It appears that the Fed will raise 75 basis points again on Wednesday. I think we are getting close to the end of the hiking cycle. The market tends to trough 4 months BEFORE the end of a recession. We are already in one. Investors are underweight stocks and prepared for a selloff. The next move down may be time to nibble a bit more.
“Short term volatility is greatest at turning points and diminishes as a trend becomes established.”– George Soros
I think we aspire less to foresee the future and more to be a great contingency planner… you can respond very fast to what’s happening because you thought through all the possibilities, – Lloyd Blankfein
A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. – Winston Churchill
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Disclosure: This blog is informational and is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. If you are thinking about investing consider the risk. Everyone’s financial situation is different. Consult your financial advisor.