Bond Market Headwinds – Dalio and Gundlach
Posted on Sunday, September 18th, 2016
Ray Dalio spoke at the Delivering Alpha Conference with CNBC. He made interesting note that interest rates cannot be made materially lower and may in fact “go the other way”. As bond yields go down it has the effect of making stocks more valuable. The bond bull market that has seen interest rates on the US 10 Year sink from 15% in the early 1980’s to 1.5% today may be over and that tailwind that it has given us to invest may becoming a headwind. Interestingly, Jeffrey Gundlach of Double Line Funds presented his latest webcast focused on the same idea. The lemon has been squeezed. It is time to look at bonds a bit differently. Those of you have followed us for the last several years know that we have been bullish on bonds longer than most and that has served us well. It may be time to change that thinking.
Deutsche Bank got word that the Department of Justice (DOJ) was looking for $14 billion to settle a probe tied to activity in mortgage backed securities. That is with a B. Why are we concerned about Deutsche Bank? DB is one of the world’s largest derivative dealers. They are a key linchpin in the financial ecosystem. The settlement will be much lower than $14B but any number above $4billion could bring into question Deutsche Bank’s capital position. European banks are already under extreme pressure with negative interest rates severely impairing their ability to make money. DB and Italian banks are on our watch list.
Explosive devices in NYC lend help to Trump. Markets may not react positively to a Trump victory and may be leaning a bit too heavily towards factoring in a Clinton victory. Not making a statement here. The deal is Wall Street doesn’t like uncertainty. Trump has no political track record and the Street has no way of knowing where to place bets on a Trump victory except that he just might shake things up. Clinton is the status quo. The Street doesn’t like uncertainty.
Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan opine this week. Things may be quiet until then. We don’t expect much. The Fed is going to be wary of raising rates in front of an election that is running very close. It is also a great excuse to hold steady as they are terrified that the market might go down on a rate hike. The Fed may never raise rates again until there is a change in leadership at the Fed. Their current policy of waiting until the perfect time will never work. There is always something to be afraid of.
Stocks and bonds have been uncomfortably correlated. That means stocks and bonds have been going in the same direction. An asset allocation between them relies on them going in opposite directions. Risk Parity funds have been taking a hit of late. They could be forced to de-lever and raise cash. Market is sitting right on its 100 day moving average and that has Momentum traders on edge. Market could swing sharply in either direction. Watch how stocks and bonds relate. Stay on your toes.