Red Flags

Posted on Sunday, September 29th, 2019

We have been working on our quarterly letter and have it out next week so this week’s blog is a short one. As if we didn’t have enough to worry about in light of a slowing global economy, trade wars and impeachment proceedings we got an email this week that may win the Red Flag Award for 2019.

Christmas has come early this year. 

I can now do No Doc Commercial Real Estate Loans for you or your clients. 

We will not ask borrowers for tax returns, bank statements, leases, rent rolls or historical operating statements! 

For a refi or cash-out, all we need is a completed application and a credit report. 

If you are buying commercial real estate, include a purchase contract to those docs and that’s it.

Oh boy! No doc loans? Didn’t we do this already? Artificially low interest rates downside is the inefficient allocation of resources and asset bubbles. Are bankers and shadow bankers reaching too far out on the limb?

The S&P 500 has closed down two weeks in a row but, in light of the Saudi oil field attacks, that may go down as a slight win for the bulls. While the S&P 500 is still holding strong to its rising trend small caps and transports have struggled and may have failed in their breakout. In our experience from failed breakouts usually come fast moves in the opposite direction. The bears have the ball. Key economic bell weathers like JP Morgan and FedEx have failed in their breakouts too and that has us cautious. Overall, stocks are still stuck in neutral. Gold has stubbornly maintained its gains and that is impressive -especially when you take into account the recent strength of the US Dollar.

I think we aspire less to foresee the future and more to be a great contingency planner… you can respond very fast to what’s happening because you thought through all the possibilities, – Lloyd  Blankfein

To learn more about us and Blackthorn Asset Management LLC visit our website at www.BlackthornAsset.com .

 

A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. – Winston Churchill

Disclosure: This blog is informational and is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. If you are thinking about investing consider the risk. Everyone’s financial situation is different. Consult your financial advisor.