Bulletproof
Posted on Saturday, December 10th, 2016
If something cannot go on forever, it will stop. – Herbert Stein American Economist
Herbert Stein was an American Economist who worked in several White House administrations and was, more famously, the father of the actor Ben Stein. (Ferris Bueller’s Day Off – “Bueller? – Bueller?”) If Mr. Stein were still with us he might find his famous quote useful this week. What we had was another 5 days of trading and another 3% higher for the S&P 500. Investors continue to plow into financials, industrials and materials while moving away from bonds and bond like equities such as utilities and real estate. Investment professionals are afraid of being left in the dust and having clients see that their portfolios don’t include the latest outperformers so they are adding them at a heady clip. It is the time honored tradition called “Window Dressing”.
Trees don’t grow to the sky and what cannot continue – won’t. David Rosenberg from Gluskin Sheff was quick to note this week that Reagan’s honeymoon lasted 6 months and 6% before seeing the market fall 25% over the next two years in the face of a rising dollar and rising bond yields. Sound familiar?
Monetary policy has been responsible for the majority of the gains in the stock market since the crisis began in 2008. The Federal Reserve pulled forward returns in seeking to engage “animal spirits” in the stock market to raise valuations. The belief was that rising asset prices would help the economy by shoring up balance sheets with higher valuations and by engendering decision makers with the confidence that higher prices would bring. Fast forward 8 years and we are truly seeing “animal spirits”. Our overriding question over the last 8 years is what happens when the monetary policy accommodation rug gets pulled out from underneath the investor? A decrease in monetary accommodation here in the US will only send the US Dollar higher, decrease asset values, and exacerbate geopolitical uncertainty in emerging markets while increasing volatility in asset pricing around the globe. We are starting to see central bankers around the world attempt to withdraw accommodation. File this one under” be careful what you wish for”.
Two things are being bandied about as fact. One thesis that traders seem to be buying into is the “Inauguration Day Trade”. Traders believe, as proffered by Jeff Gundlach, that this rally will peak before Inauguration Day. The second is that bond yields in excess of 2.75% on the 10 year will cause stock prices to fall. Keep an eye on both the yield and the calendar.
Dow Theory kicked in on Wednesday. Transports are up almost 50% from their lows in January to eclipse the all time highs of late 2014. Up 17% in the last month!! This has all the earmarks of a blow off top and we may not be finished yet. We have speculated for some time that this would be how this bull market ended – Straight up in spectacular fashion. While we have been cautious on the valuations of this market for some time the missing ingredient to a top in the market has been investor euphoria. Well, the Trump win may have provided just that. Hang on tight.
Markets are overbought. Santa may have arrived early. January may see some reversal of fortune but it looks like the trade is in place for now. Out with bonds and bond like equities and in with financials, industrials and materials. Market continues to shrug off major geopolitical financial events at an ever faster pace. The Italian Referendum was shrugged off in minutes. Ego kills when it comes to investing. Bulls are feeling bulletproof.
I think we aspire less to foresee the future and more to be a great contingency planner… you can respond very fast to what’s happening because you thought through all the possibilities, – Lloyd Blankfein
To learn more about us and Blackthorn Asset Management LLC visit our website at www.BlackthornAsset.com .
A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. – Winston Churchill
Disclosure: This blog is informational and is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. If you are thinking about investing consider the risk. Everyone’s financial situation is different. Consult your financial advisor.