Broken Clocks and Sandcastles
Posted on Saturday, October 11th, 2014
Many of you have been anxious to hear how we feel things are unfolding. While we are busy this week writing our quarterly letter we thought that given the volatility and pain of this week we would write you a small note. Like a broken clock that is right twice a day we have been in tune with the market of late. We felt that the wind down of QE in October would bring volatility to the markets that the Fed, while not welcoming it, would ALLOW volatility to proceed. This bull market has been built on the back of dullness. Most of the returns garnered since the lows in 2009 have been when volatility was low. High volatility has been seen only during pullbacks in the market. A lack of volatility breeds complacency and risk taking. Stability can breed instability. Like a child’s pile of sand at the beach that grows ever higher it only takes one additional grain of sand to knock down an entire side and you don’t know which grain of sand that will be. The Federal Reserve knows this and, I feel, senses the need to bring back volatility and a respect for risk. Not to mention the fact that they may be out of bullets.
As a reminder we had this to say in our blog post back titled Riding the Waves back in July.
The central theme here is that investors should be expecting an increase in volatility as the Federal Reserve tries to exit its loose monetary policy. We expect trading bands to widen over the coming months as Fed officials warn of approaching volatility. The bankers are asking for it and the Fed is ready to let it happen. We intend to be prepared. http://terencereilly.wordpress.com/2014/07/07/riding-the-waves/
The bearish thesis that we laid out certainly showed itself this week as the S&P 500 had its worst week in two years. Our key level on the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) had been a break of 108 which would lead the bears to make a push down to 96. We closed Friday at 104.74. (Remember these are not predictions just food for thought. Broken clocks you know.) The market is oversold at this point and due for a bounce. October’s Ghosts are out and about as fear is rising. Tough Thursday’s in October which are followed by dull Fridays have led to historic Monday’s. Tuesday could be a chance for the bulls to push back as Turnaround Tuesday comes back into vogue. We will move our stop loss a little higher as a move above 114 on IWM would mean that the bulls are back in charge.
We are still very concerned about the Fed’s exit from QE while seemingly the rest of the world’s central banks are ramping up their money printing efforts. Currency wars are all the rage as it is a race to the bottom. If your currency is lower than your neighbors you will sell more stuff. Japan, China and Europe are seemingly in economic decline while Russia may be in the midst of a currency crisis. Not a great feeling when profit margins in the US are at all time highs with overpriced markets and highly margined accounts.
Keep an eye on the Russian Ruble. Small caps are the road map. Monday morning may be very interesting if history is our guide.
I think we aspire less to foresee the future and more to be a great contingency planner… you can respond very fast to what’s happening because you thought through all the possibilities, – Lloyd Blankfein
To learn more about us and Blackthorn Asset Management LLC visit our website at www.BlackthornAsset.com .
A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. – Winston Churchill
Disclosure: This blog is informational and is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. If you are thinking about investing consider the risk. Everyone’s financial situation is different. Consult your financial advisor.