And They Danced
Posted on Saturday, May 31st, 2014
Most of the major banks have been out and about in the last week with mea culpas on earnings as Citi JPMorgan and GS are all complaining that low volatility is hurting profits. Who needs bankers and traders when there is no movement in the market? It appears that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has dampened volatility and bankers are asking for it back. Building on what Bill Dudley FRBNY President said last week that the Fed is prepared for more volatility in the markets. Volatility is coming. The bankers are asking for it and the Fed is ready to let it happen. Be ready.
Laszlo Birinyi was out and about this week making market calls. Birinyi has an amazing track record and is considered the consummate bull. All bullish all the time. He expressed this week that the bull market may be its last phase – the exuberance phase.
The market is not cheap but it is not especially expensive either,” he wrote Tuesday to clients of his Westport, Conn.-based investment management and research firm. Mr. Birinyi, a long-time bull, was among a select group of Wall Streeters who called the bottom in stocks in March 2009 and has remained optimistic ever since.
But his latest price target is far from exuberant. The S&P 500 at 1970 would mark another 3.1% gain from current levels and an overall 6.6% gain for the year. WSJ 5/27/2014
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/05/27/laszlo-birinyi-sp-500-to-1970-this-year/
For those so inclined here is a more granular analysis on the market internals from FBN’s very astute JC O’Hara.
Perceived Discrepancies with New Highs
The market once again made a new high. This continues to be a market you cannot bet against. There are many perceived discrepancies between what one would expect to find at new highs vs. what we currently have. Small Caps are lagging, yields continue to decline, new highs are scarce, and the average stock is still -11% from making a new 52 week high. Combine that with depressed readings from the VIX, credit spreads, and other market stress indicators and you have managers that are paralyzed in their decision-making processes. Many market forces and technical studies are giving contradictory signals. At the end of the day we cannot discredit the markets new high.
Sure, this may be a late stage market breakout, and according to the masses, a pullback is ‘needed’, but money continues to find its way into stocks. Someone likes the market so much they are willing to add exposure at all-time highs. We want to highlight that this is not just a US market rally, but a global developed market rally. The MSCI Developed Market Index just surpassed its 2007 highs. New Highs have the power to quickly change sentiment. We are at multiyear high levels of neutral readings according to AAII. According to NAAIM, the average manager is under exposed to where we would expect them to be positioned at new highs. This creates a market chase scenario which is dangerous. While we do not love our dance partner we are still on the dance floor and the music continues to play…
What a week in the Treasury market! Yields looked to be breaking down below 2.4% on the 10 year with 2.36% as important support. The bond market seemed to be saying that deflation and not inflation was the risk as the economy appeared to be slowing. Equities would have none of that as they rallied through resistance. Who is right? The bond market or the stock market? What makes sense to us is that the economy may be slowing which is benefiting bonds and bond bears are chasing prices higher and moving yields lower. The equity market on the other hand is still feeding at the Federal Reserve trough. As long as the Fed is still injecting money, its current pace is $45billion a month, stocks will continue to ascend. Its slowing of asset purchases has only slowed the ascent of the market. It will be interesting to see what happens when it does stop its purchases. Gold failed at the $1300 level miserably. Intellectually that also lands in the bond camp of a slowing economy and less than normal inflation. Treasuries and Gold continue to be our risk temperature gauge. Watch the yield on the 10 Year US Treasury and keep an eye on gold. We could be in for an equity melt up here as investors are caught with too much cash. While the FOMC continues to play the music investors are forced to dance.
To learn more about us and Blackthorn Asset Management LLC visit our website at www.BlackthornAsset.com .
A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. – Winston Churchill
Disclosure: This blog is informational and is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. If you are thinking about investing consider the risk. Everyone’s financial situation is different. Consult your financial advisor.