Turning Point?
Posted on Sunday, June 29th, 2025
This week felt like a turning point in the markets. Investors seemed to anticipate a pullback as corporations entered their blackout period—the time when companies report earnings and are prohibited from buying back their own shares. Corporate buybacks are a crucial source of liquidity, acting as steady, price-agnostic buyers that help support our investment accounts. Instead, NASDAQ went 5 for 5 in positive days this week.
Next week marks the first trading day of the new quarter, and an options expiration means there is potential for the market to pull back; however, it appears that investors are gearing up for a strong start. The Iranian issues seemingly behind us and the drop-dead trade tariff day of July 9th right ahead, most expect Trump to find a way to deliver a victory.
As a reminder, here is the Trump Guide to the rest of 2025.
- Inauguration Day to Memorial Day (May 26th) would see Trump frontload “bad news” of DOGE/tariffs
- Memorial Day to Labor Day (Sept 1st) would see aggressive pivot from bearish trade policy to bullish tax cut/deregulation/energy policy, and
- Labor Day to Dec’31st is all bull momentum from tax cuts, Fed cuts, and lower oil/yields/dollar.
We’re now entering the pro-growth phase, with talk of further tax cuts and deregulation. President Trump has even hinted at nominating a new Fed Chair in the fall, who may support additional interest rate cuts.
Investors who hesitated or sold during the tariff uncertainty in April are now chasing the market higher. If we see a resolution or suspension of tariffs on July 9th, combined with the prospect of interest rate cuts, stocks could surge. According to the theory of reflexivity, new all-time highs often lead to further gains. July is historically strong for the Nasdaq, and Japan’s market is showing signs of a breakout. However, gold—which has been a core holding for us over the past three years—may experience a pause.
We’re witnessing the most global rate cuts since the 2009 financial crisis, and the U.S. is likely to follow suit. Governments worldwide are increasing spending, and investors are still positioned defensively. As risk is repriced, the path of least resistance for markets appears to be higher.
Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited.” – George Soros
I think we aspire less to foresee the future and more to be a great contingency planner… you can respond very fast to what’s happening because you thought through all the possibilities, – Lloyd Blankfein
A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. – Winston Churchill
To learn more about us and Blackthorn Asset Management LLC visit our website at www.BlackthornAsset.com .
Disclosure: This blog is informational and is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. If you are thinking about investing consider the risk. Everyone’s financial situation is different. Consult your financial advisor.