Last Time
Posted on Sunday, September 12th, 2021
Well, that’s the last time we talk about the virus. Seriously, we heard from both the right and the left on this one. My brain is hardwired to make life decisions just as I would make investing decisions. I simply made a decision with imperfect information and multiple variables. It’s Investing 101. I took my time and assessed the data. The hard part was being patient to get the right amount of data and not giving into my emotions. We invest the same way. Investing should be as unemotional as possible. Unfortunately, the higher the stakes the more emotions get involved. Investing takes patience and discipline. You have to stick to your process which helps eliminate the emotion. The emotions of fear and greed are your enemy.
Our daughter got word from Caterpillar last week that they will let her know if a full time position is available for her in the next two weeks. Saturday, our senior in high school took the ACT’s for the last time. He felt good about his performance. It is going to be a very important and eventful month in the Reilly house. BTW – all this last stuff is starting to get to me. It is going to be an awfully quiet house next September. Diane said she is going to pick up golf so she can play with me. She went to the range on Saturday and did great for her first time. Maybe that’s it. We need more firsts and less lasts.
All of the major banks have been gradually working their way to becoming bears. This is shocking. Why? Investment banks are ALWAYS bullish. They are selling the dream. Yes, things have probably gone too far in regards to valuations in the stock market. It has to go down some time? Right?! All of the major banks agree that the market is too high and due for an imminent drawdown of 10-20%. One of the rules that we have come to rely on in our investing is from the great Bob Farrell at Merrill Lynch. When everyone agrees that something will happen – something else will probably happen. It is simply the fact that if everyone thinks that the market is going to go down then they are all prepared for it. They are betting on it. They have insured themselves against that risk. If everyone is ready for it then it won’t happen. If no one is prepared for a crash, if no one has insurance, and has on too much risk – then the market can proceed lower. Our signals are telling us that market players have insurance on and are prepared for a drawdown. The market may go down but there is a buffer and strong support underneath.
I think we aspire less to foresee the future and more to be a great contingency planner… you can respond very fast to what’s happening because you thought through all the possibilities, – Lloyd Blankfein
A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. – Winston Churchill
To learn more about us and Blackthorn Asset Management LLC visit our website at www.BlackthornAsset.com .
Disclosure: This blog is informational and is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. If you are thinking about investing consider the risk. Everyone’s financial situation is different. Consult your financial advisor.