Choices – The NEW Retirement
Posted on Sunday, March 17th, 2019
It is tax time and that is traditionally the time of year when we talk to clients the most. The calendar has just turned and thoughts turn to taxes and retirement. We have had a recurring conversation with several clients these last few weeks. The overriding question is when do I retire? That, inevitably, leads to the question of what does retirement mean? I have several clients who have been on the cusp of retirement the last few years and have decided to keep working. It has dawned on them that once they were in a position to retire – they no longer wanted to retire. Why would you want to quit? You are now at your most valuable. You have incredible work/life experience and the responsibilities of being at home are mostly gone. I can work more efficiently now and even mentor the next generation at work. Studies tell us that those that are happiest and healthiest in retirement are those that have purpose, a strong community of friends and stay active. Let’s face it. Most of us are not digging ditches for a living. We are using our brains. Why not work longer? What saving our pennies does for us in the new retirement is it gives us choices. If we decide on a Tuesday we just cannot work in a negative environment or for a certain someone any longer we can get up and leave and usually find another opportunity. The new retirement is really about having choices.
We thought that the March OPEX would live up to its billing – volatile and bullish. What a week! Historically, the week following the March OPEX is negative. Leading the propulsion to the upside in 2019 has been corporate buy backs. Those buybacks have been running 40% above Q1 2018! They will now go into a black out period where they cannot buy while their earnings are released. That will give help to any bears left standing. We made our decision to take risk off the table in late January/early February and set the levels (our stops) at which we are forced to change our minds. We are at those stops. Bonds and stocks have completely diverged. Usually, bonds are right (The battle doesn’t always go the bonds but that’s the way to bet. -Grantland Rice) If bonds are right then stocks will head south. Could they both be right? Yes. That would mean the market is betting on QE4 and a continued rise in all asset prices. That means that bad news is good news and Buy The Dip is back.
I think we aspire less to foresee the future and more to be a great contingency planner… you can respond very fast to what’s happening because you thought through all the possibilities, – Lloyd Blankfein
To learn more about us and Blackthorn Asset Management LLC visit our website at www.BlackthornAsset.com .
A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. – Winston Churchill
Disclosure: This blog is informational and is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. If you are thinking about investing consider the risk. Everyone’s financial situation is different. Consult your financial advisor.