The Market’s Violent Transition
Posted on Saturday, November 19th, 2016
There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”
― Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
This was another busy week for the markets in the aftermath of the Trump victory. There has been a sea change in the outlook for markets going forward which is much more predicated on the House, Senate and White House being controlled by Republicans than it is solely about Trump. A stranglehold on DC by the Republicans will enable them to pass legislation to help stimulate the economy and perhaps stoke the fan of inflation. We had some bright minds check in with their thoughts this week. Ray Dalio proffered his thoughts on LinkedIn this week on the Trump win and where that takes the investing landscape. Dalio feels that we are at a major reversal point that may last a decade.
As a result, whereas the previous period was characterized by 1) increasing globalization, free trade, and global connectedness, 2) relatively innocuous fiscal policies, and 3) sluggish domestic growth, low inflation, and falling bond yields, the new period is more likely to be characterized by 1) decreasing globalization, free trade, and global connectedness, 2) aggressively stimulative fiscal policies, and 3) increased US growth, higher inflation, and rising bond yields.
As for the effects of this particular ideological/environmental shift, we think that there’s a significant likelihood that we have made the 30-year top in bond prices. We probably have made both the secular low in inflation and the secular low in bond yields relative to inflation.
The question will be when will this move short-circuit itself—i.e., when will the rise in nominal (and, more importantly, real) bond yields and risk premiums start hurting other asset prices.
The key to success here will asset allocation. The early winning sectors out of the gate are financials, materials and industrials. The losers are bonds, utilities and REIT’s. We will be looking towards oil as we have been writing about for several weeks. The bottom may be in for oil as $60 a barrel looks far likelier than a revisit to the lows of $20 a barrel. US Treasuries have been absolutely hammered since the election and we suspect while the 30 bond bull market in bonds is dead but tradable lows in bonds may be at hand as bonds are oversold.
We have been prepared for this upward move in bond yields as we sought cover by lowering our duration for our investors. We believe the 30 Year could move to 5% over the next five years. We were shocked to hear Jeffrey Gundlach, whose prescient calls we follow in the bond market, is predicting a move in the 10 Year to over 6% in the next five years. A move of that magnitude is what Dalio is speaking of when he relates that at some point bond yields will move too high for stocks. At some level investors will prefer bond yields to stocks and stocks will falter. At what level that occurs is the current $1 Trillion dollar question.
Future inflation expectations are soaring. We believe in the sea change that Dalio and Gundlach are espousing with regards to inflation and higher bond yields. In the short term it appears as if everything is currently either overbought or oversold as we have entered this violent rotation out of bonds and bond like instruments into equities. The markets going forward may soon turn their attention to an exit from the EU by Italy as their referendum is fast approaching. For now, 2190-2200 on the S&P 500 is resistance while support is anywhere lower as the buy the dip crowd is back, although, investors will be buying financials rather than utilities. Things may have moved too far too fast. We think that bond yields will soon revert lower if only to relieve their oversold condition but it appears the 30 year trend has changed.
I think we aspire less to foresee the future and more to be a great contingency planner… you can respond very fast to what’s happening because you thought through all the possibilities, – Lloyd Blankfein
To learn more about us and Blackthorn Asset Management LLC visit our website at www.BlackthornAsset.com .
A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. – Winston Churchill
Disclosure: This blog is informational and is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. If you are thinking about investing consider the risk. Everyone’s financial situation is different. Consult your financial advisor.