666 Redux

Posted on Sunday, May 6th, 2018

Rollarcoaster markets. Around and around, up and down and we are back where we started. Hopefully, it didn’t cost you money. Another week and month and we are stuck at 2(666). You can read our thesis on the number 666 in our postings Bitcoin and Warning Shot. The short version is that the market has struggled at 2 times, 3 times and now 4 times the low on the S&P 500 of 666. It’s not magic. Its algorithms. The computers are in charge and for now the trading houses love the volatility but it’s all just churning. We have expected this churning to last 9- 18 months but we are getting closer to taking the under on that bet.

While the pundits are obsessed with Elon Musk’s seeming breakdown we will continue to obsess over the recent ranges of gold, stocks and bonds. It could be a long summer as the doldrums kick in but given our track record it will happen when we are furthest from the office. We have a knack for taking vacations at exactly the right time. For an inside tip look at your August calendar.

We continue to be invested because we do not know which way the market will head and time is money. It’s boring and it’s not sexy but look at where you cash, your dry powder, is invested. The differences are staggering and it is well worth your time to pick up 200 basis points. The market continues to struggle and is stuck in the range between 2550-2700 on the S&P 500. The longer it stays in the range the better it is for the bulls and the harder the breakout will be when it comes. We see the market breaking to 2850 and new highs or a trapdoor opening with a swift move to 2400 or lower. The market still struggles with 2666 as we closed the week at 2664 (which is the actual 4 x 666). We are stuck, for now, in a range between the 100 Day Moving Average (DMA) and the 200 DMA and that range is growing tighter each week as the 200 day is trending higher. Something will have to give. Keep an eye on the door. When these ranges break things will change rapidly – but for now we wait.

I think we aspire less to foresee the future and more to be a great contingency planner… you can respond very fast to what’s happening because you thought through all the possibilities, – Lloyd  Blankfein

To learn more about us and Blackthorn Asset Management LLC visit our website at www.BlackthornAsset.com .

A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. – Winston Churchill

 

Disclosure: This blog is informational and is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. If you are thinking about investing consider the risk. Everyone’s financial situation is different. Consult your financial advisor.